Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Bonino 50.0% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 33-24 in 57 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 57.0%
Defensive zone
Bonino 66.9%
Neutral zone
Bonino 53.6%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Nelson
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
24
(57 meetings)
33
24
Nelson
Bonino
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
11
6
Nelson
Bonino
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
5
11
Nelson
Bonino
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
17
7
Nelson
Bonino
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.6% (8,315)
-2.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
54.1% (972)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
44.6% (1,693)
-0.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Bonino is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,917).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bonino
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.2% (5,507)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.8% (5,480)
By Period
Nelson
Bonino
P1
48.7%
50.6%
P2
48.5%
48.5%
P3
47.7%
51.1%
OT
45.6%
45.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 16:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 12:48 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 08:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 11:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 11:38 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 07:03 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 06:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 06:46 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 2 | 03:53 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |