Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Bonino 51.2% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.4%
Defensive zone
Bonino 72.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Nelson
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Bonino
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Bonino
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Nelson
Bonino
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Bonino
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
51.7% (777)
-1.8%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
60.0% (50)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
43.9% (98)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Bonino has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Bonino is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (629).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bonino
Home
49.8% (458)
48.2% (461)
Away
49.0% (506)
54.5% (464)
By Period
Nelson
Bonino
P1
50.1%
54.1%
P2
45.4%
49.7%
P3
52.7%
50.7%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 12:48 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 1 | 08:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |