Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 48.2%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Bonino 48.5% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.2%
Defensive zone
Bonino 67.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
Nelson
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Nelson
Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Bonino
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Bonino
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
48.1% (324)
-1.2%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
57.9% (38)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
44.3% (88)
-19.3%
On penalty kill, Bonino has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Bonino is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bonino
Home
48.9% (521)
52.0% (244)
Away
45.5% (516)
43.7% (206)
By Period
Nelson
Bonino
P1
45.9%
48.0%
P2
48.0%
42.9%
P3
48.0%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.3%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 16:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |