Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Sturm 52.5% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 65.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Nelson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Nelson
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Nelson
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Nelson
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
54.0% (480)
-4.1%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
28.6% (7)
+24.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
50.0% (102)
-21.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sturm
Home
49.8% (458)
54.0% (287)
Away
49.0% (506)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Nelson
Sturm
P1
50.1%
53.5%
P2
45.4%
51.0%
P3
52.7%
55.1%
OT
33.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2021 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 1 | 16:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |