Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Sturm 59.0% (-14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 77.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Nelson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Sturm
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Nelson
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
60.6% (708)
-14.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
61.1% (18)
-26.6%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
56.4% (101)
-26.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sturm
Home
48.7% (419)
61.6% (451)
Away
41.3% (368)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Nelson
Sturm
P1
44.6%
55.9%
P2
47.3%
58.9%
P3
43.0%
64.6%
OT
100.0%
70.6%
Final 5 min
39.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 16:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |