Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Sturm 57.1% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 75.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 59.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Nelson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Nelson
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
62.1% (356)
-10.8%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
75.0% (4)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
38.7% (62)
+13.2%
On power play, Sturm has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sturm
Home
52.5% (590)
61.8% (191)
Away
51.7% (619)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Nelson
Sturm
P1
50.5%
58.0%
P2
54.4%
57.9%
P3
51.4%
60.6%
Final 5 min
57.3%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |