Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Sturm 56.1% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 68.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 75.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Nelson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
13
(18 meetings)
5
13
Nelson
Sturm
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
7
Nelson
Sturm
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
6
Nelson
Sturm
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
57.1% (2,719)
-9.2%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
61.3% (62)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
51.0% (498)
-7.2%
On even strength, Sturm has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sturm
Home
50.0% (5,845)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Nelson
Sturm
P1
48.7%
56.5%
P2
48.5%
54.9%
P3
47.7%
57.4%
OT
45.6%
60.6%
Final 5 min
47.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:02 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 16:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 18:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 16:08 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 05:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 19:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 1 | 16:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |