Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 48.8%). Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Roy 48.9% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 75.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 58.3%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Nelson
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Nelson
Roy
Last 8: Nelson 2-6 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Nelson
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
4
Nelson
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
49.5% (746)
+0.4%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
50.7% (75)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
42.7% (110)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Roy is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Nelson
Roy
Home
49.8% (458)
47.7% (491)
Away
49.0% (506)
50.0% (440)
By Period
Nelson
Roy
P1
50.1%
51.1%
P2
45.4%
44.6%
P3
52.7%
50.9%
OT
33.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.1%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 16:39 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 19, 2021 | 1 | 09:57 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 13:40 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 3 | 01:12 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 2 | 19:38 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 2 | 01:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2021 | 1 | 17:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |