Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Roy 47.2% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 72.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Nelson
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Roy
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
1
2
Nelson
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
47.5% (617)
-1.4%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
39.6% (53)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
46.4% (97)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Nelson
Roy
Home
48.7% (419)
47.2% (398)
Away
41.3% (368)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Nelson
Roy
P1
44.6%
48.6%
P2
47.3%
48.8%
P3
43.0%
43.9%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 17:31 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 08:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 01:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 01:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:31 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |