Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Roy 47.9% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 68.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 78.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 81.7%
81.7%
18.3%
Nelson
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Nelson
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
Roy
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Nelson
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
48.6% (679)
+2.7%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
48.0% (50)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
34.7% (49)
+17.2%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Nelson
Roy
Home
52.5% (590)
49.3% (345)
Away
51.7% (619)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Nelson
Roy
P1
50.5%
47.6%
P2
54.4%
47.1%
P3
51.4%
47.9%
OT
47.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 11:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |