Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Roy 51.9% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 62.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.3%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Nelson
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
51.9% (547)
-1.2%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
54.1% (37)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
53.3% (92)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Nelson
Roy
Home
52.3% (621)
54.0% (328)
Away
48.9% (618)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Nelson
Roy
P1
48.4%
53.5%
P2
53.5%
51.6%
P3
50.3%
51.6%
Final 5 min
50.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 13:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 06:49 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |