Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Cates 45.5% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 79.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 84.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 78.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 80.3%
19.7%
80.3%
Nelson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Nelson
Cates
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
3
Nelson
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
5
Nelson
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
45.4% (712)
+5.3%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
42.2% (102)
+16.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
44.7% (47)
-1.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (541).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cates
Home
52.3% (621)
46.3% (423)
Away
48.9% (618)
43.6% (438)
By Period
Nelson
Cates
P1
48.4%
46.3%
P2
53.5%
47.1%
P3
50.3%
42.1%
OT
41.2%
18.2%
Final 5 min
50.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 17:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:08 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:18 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |