Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Cates 40.4% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 68.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 88.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 77.5%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 79.5%
20.5%
79.5%
Nelson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Nelson
Cates
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Nelson
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
2
6
Nelson
Cates
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
40.4% (841)
+6.5%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
42.4% (66)
+15.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
32.7% (147)
-7.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cates
Home
48.9% (521)
38.2% (566)
Away
45.5% (516)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Nelson
Cates
P1
45.9%
40.5%
P2
48.0%
42.4%
P3
48.0%
35.3%
OT
33.3%
42.9%
Final 5 min
45.3%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 12:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 1 | 10:53 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 1 | 08:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 1 | 04:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 1 | 04:36 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:21 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:58 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 01:21 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 02:46 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:30 | Neutral | Noah Cates |