Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Cates 43.2% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 20-18 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 67.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 61.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Nelson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
20
(38 meetings)
18
20
Nelson
Cates
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
4
Nelson
Cates
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
4
Nelson
Cates
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
4
12
Nelson
Cates
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
44.1% (2,742)
+3.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
43.0% (242)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
34.9% (373)
+8.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cates
Home
50.0% (5,845)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Nelson
Cates
P1
48.7%
44.5%
P2
48.5%
43.5%
P3
47.7%
41.2%
OT
45.6%
29.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 17:41 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 17:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:08 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:18 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 11:11 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |