Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Cates 45.1% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 97.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 82.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 89.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 90.6%
90.6%
9.4%
Nelson
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
4
(16 meetings)
12
4
Nelson
Cates
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
0
Nelson
Cates
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
46.7% (912)
+4.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
33.9% (56)
+24.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
35.0% (137)
+16.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cates
Home
52.5% (590)
46.1% (521)
Away
51.7% (619)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Nelson
Cates
P1
50.5%
48.0%
P2
54.4%
42.3%
P3
51.4%
44.3%
OT
47.4%
31.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:44 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 14:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 05:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 11:11 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 17:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 03:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:59 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |