Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Kurashev 46.9% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 78.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Nelson
Kurashev
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Kurashev
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kurashev
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kurashev
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
50.0% (46)
+0.7%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
40.7% (27)
+17.9%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
0.0% (6)
+43.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +43.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kurashev shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Kurashev is 30.4% vs left-shot opponents (46).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kurashev
Home
52.3% (621)
37.5% (40)
Away
48.9% (618)
48.7% (39)
By Period
Nelson
Kurashev
P1
48.4%
48.6%
P2
53.5%
40.0%
P3
50.3%
37.9%
Final 5 min
50.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Kurashev
38.0%▼
43.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |