Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Greig 51.2% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.7%
Defensive zone
Greig 61.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.2%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Nelson
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Greig
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
50.5% (275)
-0.5%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
69.6% (23)
-13.3%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
49.2% (65)
-7.2%
On power play, Greig has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Nelson shoots left. Greig is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (172).
Home / Away
Nelson
Greig
Home
50.4% (472)
50.2% (209)
Away
48.6% (477)
53.2% (154)
By Period
Nelson
Greig
P1
47.2%
43.9%
P2
53.4%
60.2%
P3
47.8%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Greig
48.0%▬
48.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |