Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Greig 45.0% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.9%
Defensive zone
Greig 66.2%
Neutral zone
Greig 60.4%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Nelson
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Nelson
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
Nelson
Greig
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
Nelson
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
45.2% (414)
+0.9%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
28.6% (14)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
28.6% (21)
+1.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Greig is 42.7% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Nelson
Greig
Home
48.7% (419)
46.4% (196)
Away
41.3% (368)
41.9% (253)
By Period
Nelson
Greig
P1
44.6%
40.8%
P2
47.3%
46.4%
P3
43.0%
43.9%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |