Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Greig 53.8% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.1%
Defensive zone
Greig 73.5%
Neutral zone
Greig 50.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Nelson
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Greig
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Greig
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
Nelson
Greig
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
0
1
Nelson
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
53.6% (280)
-2.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
61.3% (31)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
56.5% (69)
-4.6%
On penalty kill, Greig has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Greig is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (166).
Home / Away
Nelson
Greig
Home
52.5% (590)
56.2% (185)
Away
51.7% (619)
53.3% (195)
By Period
Nelson
Greig
P1
50.5%
52.8%
P2
54.4%
51.6%
P3
51.4%
59.5%
Final 5 min
57.3%
58.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:59 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 05:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |