Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.7%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Greig 48.8% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.1%
Defensive zone
Greig 62.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Nelson
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Nelson
Greig
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Greig
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
3
Nelson
Greig
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Greig
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.5% (1,133)
-0.6%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
56.8% (74)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
46.5% (172)
-2.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Greig is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (745).
Home / Away
Nelson
Greig
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.8% (681)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.7% (698)
By Period
Nelson
Greig
P1
48.7%
46.3%
P2
48.5%
51.2%
P3
47.7%
48.8%
OT
45.6%
28.6%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:59 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 05:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 16:09 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 14:32 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |