Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 50.8%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Greig 50.6% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.2%
Defensive zone
Greig 58.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.4%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Nelson
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Greig
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
51.5% (336)
-0.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
66.7% (24)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
43.2% (81)
+0.2%
On power play, Greig has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Greig is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (230).
Home / Away
Nelson
Greig
Home
52.3% (621)
50.2% (247)
Away
48.9% (618)
51.5% (194)
By Period
Nelson
Greig
P1
48.4%
46.9%
P2
53.5%
58.8%
P3
50.3%
48.3%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Greig
52.0%▲
48.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |