Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Johansen 52.6% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 71.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 72.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Nelson
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Nelson
Johansen
Last 10: Nelson 1-9 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Nelson
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
5
Nelson
Johansen
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
Nelson
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
52.5% (1,002)
-10.4%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
56.1% (198)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
49.5% (111)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Nelson is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Nelson shoots left. Johansen is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (864).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johansen
Home
43.8% (224)
54.7% (632)
Away
41.0% (227)
51.0% (679)
By Period
Nelson
Johansen
P1
48.1%
54.3%
P2
38.4%
53.5%
P3
39.2%
50.9%
OT
75.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
41.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2014 | 3 | 14:37 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 3 | 02:58 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 3 | 00:25 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 2 | 10:11 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 1 | 14:02 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 1 | 05:32 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 23, 2014 | 3 | 14:55 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 23, 2014 | 3 | 09:55 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 23, 2014 | 3 | 01:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 23, 2014 | 1 | 18:00 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |