Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Johansen 52.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 50.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Nelson
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Nelson
Johansen
Last 7: Nelson 3-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Nelson
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
Nelson
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
49.4% (1,010)
+0.5%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
62.3% (236)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
67.2% (67)
-38.6%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +38.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Johansen is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (950).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johansen
Home
49.8% (458)
54.7% (655)
Away
49.0% (506)
50.6% (658)
By Period
Nelson
Johansen
P1
50.1%
52.2%
P2
45.4%
50.7%
P3
52.7%
54.8%
OT
33.3%
53.6%
Final 5 min
47.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2021 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 08:34 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 05:33 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 18:02 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 14:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 14:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |