Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 27 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Johansen 53.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 48-43 in 91 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 73.8%
Defensive zone
Johansen 60.9%
Neutral zone
Johansen 62.9%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 65.5%
34.5%
65.5%
Nelson
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
43
(91 meetings)
48
43
Nelson
Johansen
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
17
10
Nelson
Johansen
27 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
14
16
Nelson
Johansen
30 total
Neutral Zone
Even
17
17
Nelson
Johansen
34 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
53.1% (11,017)
-5.2%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
56.2% (2,163)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
50.5% (978)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Johansen is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (9,788).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johansen
Home
50.0% (5,845)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Nelson
Johansen
P1
48.7%
53.2%
P2
48.5%
53.9%
P3
47.7%
52.8%
OT
45.6%
58.2%
Final 5 min
47.8%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 14:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 18:14 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 14:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 14:44 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 06:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:55 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 2 | 08:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 11:59 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:13 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 04:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |