Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Johansen 58.2% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 52.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Nelson
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Nelson
Johansen
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Johansen
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Nelson
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
4
Nelson
Johansen
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
59.8% (625)
-12.9%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
58.2% (196)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
51.9% (27)
-26.9%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Johansen is 60.4% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johansen
Home
48.9% (521)
60.3% (436)
Away
45.5% (516)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Nelson
Johansen
P1
45.9%
61.3%
P2
48.0%
60.4%
P3
48.0%
56.0%
OT
33.3%
56.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2022 | 3 | 15:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 2 | 08:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 11:59 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:13 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 04:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 1 | 16:14 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |