Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Johansen 52.8% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.4%
Defensive zone
Johansen 64.7%
Neutral zone
Johansen 51.4%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Nelson
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Nelson
Johansen
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Johansen
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Johansen
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
51.9% (597)
-5.8%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
57.9% (133)
-23.4%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
54.3% (81)
-23.9%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +23.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Johansen is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (584).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johansen
Home
48.7% (419)
55.8% (387)
Away
41.3% (368)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Nelson
Johansen
P1
44.6%
50.0%
P2
47.3%
56.2%
P3
43.0%
52.6%
OT
100.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 14:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:18 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 18:14 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 14:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 14:44 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 06:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:55 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 08:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |