Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Nelson wins 40.7% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Johansen 51.8% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 88.3%
Defensive zone
Johansen 68.9%
Neutral zone
Johansen 70.2%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Nelson
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Nelson
Johansen
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
3
Nelson
Johansen
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
2
Nelson
Johansen
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
51.6% (1,127)
-7.7%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
53.6% (267)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
51.6% (244)
-10.2%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Nelson is 40.7% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Nelson shoots left. Johansen is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,067).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johansen
Home
42.9% (406)
55.0% (809)
Away
45.8% (393)
49.0% (829)
By Period
Nelson
Johansen
P1
44.1%
50.7%
P2
47.2%
54.4%
P3
42.2%
50.5%
OT
30.8%
64.7%
Final 5 min
39.9%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2015 | OT | 02:07 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 2 | 01:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 1 | 09:20 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 1 | 09:05 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 1 | 03:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 3 | 15:46 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 3 | 08:41 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 3 | 05:40 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 2 | 00:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 1 | 13:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2015 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2015 | 2 | 07:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 3 | 07:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |