Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Poehling 49.2% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Poehling leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.5%
Defensive zone
Poehling 55.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
Nelson
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Nelson
Poehling
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Poehling
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Nelson
Poehling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
50.4% (752)
-4.3%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
37.0% (27)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
45.3% (159)
-14.9%
On penalty kill, Poehling has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Poehling is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (655).
Home / Away
Nelson
Poehling
Home
48.7% (419)
51.2% (467)
Away
41.3% (368)
47.1% (471)
By Period
Nelson
Poehling
P1
44.6%
54.6%
P2
47.3%
46.7%
P3
43.0%
46.7%
OT
100.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
39.4%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 02:45 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 06:25 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 07:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 18:02 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 13:15 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |