Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Poehling 47.4% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.9%
Defensive zone
Poehling 78.3%
Neutral zone
Poehling 67.0%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Nelson
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Poehling
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Nelson
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Nelson
Poehling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
49.8% (626)
+0.9%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
58.3% (12)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
38.2% (207)
+5.2%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Poehling is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Home / Away
Nelson
Poehling
Home
52.3% (621)
47.3% (404)
Away
48.9% (618)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Nelson
Poehling
P1
48.4%
53.5%
P2
53.5%
39.4%
P3
50.3%
49.1%
OT
41.2%
35.7%
Final 5 min
50.8%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 18:02 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 11:24 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 11:38 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:54 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |