Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Poehling 50.8% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.9%
Defensive zone
Poehling 76.1%
Neutral zone
Poehling 52.3%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Nelson
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Nelson
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
52.6% (622)
-1.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
58.3% (12)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
39.8% (103)
+12.1%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Poehling is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Home / Away
Nelson
Poehling
Home
52.5% (590)
53.2% (393)
Away
51.7% (619)
48.3% (344)
By Period
Nelson
Poehling
P1
50.5%
50.9%
P2
54.4%
56.2%
P3
51.4%
46.1%
OT
47.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:55 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |