Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 22 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Strome 44.6% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 48-36 in 84 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 78.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 79.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Nelson
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
48
-
36
(84 meetings)
48
36
Nelson
Strome
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
15
7
Nelson
Strome
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
18
14
Nelson
Strome
32 total
Neutral Zone
Even
15
15
Nelson
Strome
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
44.1% (6,839)
+3.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
49.3% (854)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
41.5% (410)
+2.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Strome is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,726).
Home / Away
Nelson
Strome
Home
50.0% (5,845)
44.4% (4,046)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
44.7% (4,057)
By Period
Nelson
Strome
P1
48.7%
44.0%
P2
48.5%
45.3%
P3
47.7%
44.3%
OT
45.6%
46.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 05:32 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 11:38 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 09:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 18:58 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 15:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 01:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 00:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |