Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Strome 44.4% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 77.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 70.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Nelson
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Strome
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Strome
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Strome
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
43.0% (788)
+3.9%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
47.9% (96)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
50.0% (34)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Strome is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (685).
Home / Away
Nelson
Strome
Home
48.9% (521)
42.6% (486)
Away
45.5% (516)
45.1% (432)
By Period
Nelson
Strome
P1
45.9%
41.0%
P2
48.0%
47.8%
P3
48.0%
42.1%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
42.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
43.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 09:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 18:58 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |