Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 46.1%). Look for Strome on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Strome 46.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 54.2%
Defensive zone
Strome 51.3%
Neutral zone
Strome 52.0%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Nelson
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Nelson
Strome
Last 7: Nelson 3-4 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Strome
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
0
3
Nelson
Strome
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Strome
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
46.4% (371)
-0.3%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
43.3% (97)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
55.6% (18)
-25.2%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +25.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Strome is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (339).
Home / Away
Nelson
Strome
Home
48.7% (419)
47.6% (225)
Away
41.3% (368)
44.8% (261)
By Period
Nelson
Strome
P1
44.6%
45.4%
P2
47.3%
47.6%
P3
43.0%
45.2%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
46.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 05:32 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:11 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 17:14 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 11:38 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 13, 2023 | 1 | 00:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |