Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Nelson wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Strome 44.0% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 69.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 82.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Nelson
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
12
(30 meetings)
18
12
Nelson
Strome
Last 10: Nelson 9-1 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
2
Nelson
Strome
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
2
Nelson
Strome
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
6
8
Nelson
Strome
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
41.9% (626)
+6.6%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
50.0% (76)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
51.2% (41)
+6.3%
On even strength, Nelson has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Nelson is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Nelson shoots left. Strome is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (497).
Home / Away
Nelson
Strome
Home
55.0% (362)
40.8% (363)
Away
43.5% (345)
45.5% (380)
By Period
Nelson
Strome
P1
49.3%
43.0%
P2
53.6%
41.3%
P3
46.0%
45.9%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
36.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.4%
Strome
52.0%▲
46.5%
43.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 01:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 04:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 00:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 04:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 08:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 12:35 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 3 | 00:29 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 2 | 10:23 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 16:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 18:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 11:15 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 08:24 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |