Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Monahan 54.5% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 61.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 61.8%
61.8%
38.2%
Nelson
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Nelson
Monahan
Last 8: Nelson 3-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Monahan
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
4
Nelson
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
57.1% (871)
-11.0%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
53.1% (262)
-18.6%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
44.6% (139)
-14.2%
On power play, Monahan has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Nelson
Monahan
Home
48.7% (419)
55.3% (644)
Away
41.3% (368)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Nelson
Monahan
P1
44.6%
53.9%
P2
47.3%
55.3%
P3
43.0%
54.4%
OT
100.0%
76.5%
Final 5 min
39.4%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 15:32 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 3 | 01:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 1 | 12:19 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 05:58 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 18:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 10:08 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 06:37 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |