Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Monahan 52.8% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Nelson
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
12
(18 meetings)
6
12
Nelson
Monahan
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
5
Nelson
Monahan
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
Nelson
Monahan
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
4
Nelson
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
53.2% (823)
-2.5%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
55.3% (159)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
48.4% (95)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Home / Away
Nelson
Monahan
Home
52.3% (621)
54.6% (529)
Away
48.9% (618)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Nelson
Monahan
P1
48.4%
49.0%
P2
53.5%
55.4%
P3
50.3%
53.6%
OT
41.2%
61.9%
Final 5 min
50.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:41 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:11 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 03:56 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |