Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 50.0%). Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Aho 50.0% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 80.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 67.4%
67.4%
32.6%
Nelson
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Aho
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
49.9% (851)
+0.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
53.5% (144)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
43.3% (60)
+0.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Nelson
Aho
Home
52.3% (621)
53.2% (554)
Away
48.9% (618)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Nelson
Aho
P1
48.4%
49.1%
P2
53.5%
50.8%
P3
50.3%
49.7%
OT
41.2%
58.8%
Final 5 min
50.8%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 17:13 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 02:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | OT | 01:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:31 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |