Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Aho 52.2% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 59.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Nelson
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Aho
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Nelson
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
51.6% (819)
-1.7%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
58.4% (173)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
46.3% (67)
-17.7%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Aho is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Nelson
Aho
Home
49.8% (458)
53.9% (568)
Away
49.0% (506)
50.7% (491)
By Period
Nelson
Aho
P1
50.1%
55.4%
P2
45.4%
51.2%
P3
52.7%
50.9%
OT
33.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
47.1%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 19:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 16:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 13:08 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 09:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2021 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |