Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Aho 54.9% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 56.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Nelson
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Nelson
Aho
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
5
Nelson
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Aho
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
54.5% (870)
-3.2%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
62.4% (266)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
37.1% (62)
+14.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Nelson
Aho
Home
52.5% (590)
53.9% (603)
Away
51.7% (619)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Nelson
Aho
P1
50.5%
54.1%
P2
54.4%
55.0%
P3
51.4%
57.4%
OT
47.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 10:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 07:23 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 06:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:21 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 06:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 17:10 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 14:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |