Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Aho 53.8% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Nelson
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Nelson
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Nelson
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Nelson
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
51.2% (785)
-5.1%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
63.8% (213)
-29.3%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
57.9% (57)
-27.5%
On power play, Aho has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Nelson
Aho
Home
48.7% (419)
54.9% (548)
Away
41.3% (368)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Nelson
Aho
P1
44.6%
52.8%
P2
47.3%
58.9%
P3
43.0%
50.6%
OT
100.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 13:49 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |