Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Aho 51.2% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 53.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Nelson
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Nelson
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
48.5% (778)
-1.6%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
63.4% (191)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
50.8% (65)
-25.8%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +25.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Aho is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Nelson
Aho
Home
48.9% (521)
51.3% (530)
Away
45.5% (516)
51.4% (504)
By Period
Nelson
Aho
P1
45.9%
50.0%
P2
48.0%
51.3%
P3
48.0%
52.1%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.3%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 07:09 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 16:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 3 | 07:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |