Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.6%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Aho 48.7% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 60.9%
Defensive zone
Aho 51.2%
Neutral zone
Aho 53.7%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Nelson
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
Nelson
Aho
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
7
Nelson
Aho
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Nelson
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Nelson
Aho
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
47.4% (953)
+0.0%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
58.0% (174)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
41.6% (77)
+1.3%
On power play, Aho has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Nelson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Nelson shoots left. Aho is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (751).
Home / Away
Nelson
Aho
Home
51.0% (641)
50.2% (609)
Away
44.1% (605)
46.9% (595)
By Period
Nelson
Aho
P1
48.2%
48.7%
P2
48.1%
50.2%
P3
46.9%
47.0%
OT
42.9%
41.7%
Final 5 min
44.6%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 19:34 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 19:23 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 19:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 15:03 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 12:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 09:46 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 05:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 15:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 05:24 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 05:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 01:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 12:18 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 05:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 05:11 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 03:39 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 3 | 16:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2 | 18:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |