Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Oshie on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Oshie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Oshie 50.0% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Oshie 81.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 72.6%
Neutral zone
Oshie 59.6%
Result
T.J. Oshie favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Nelson
Oshie
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Nelson
Oshie
Last 8: Nelson 3-5 Oshie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Oshie
0
5
Nelson
Oshie
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Oshie
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Oshie
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
51.7% (58)
-1.0%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
49.1% (169)
+10.7%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
54.5% (11)
-6.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Oshie shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Oshie is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Nelson
Oshie
Home
53.6% (603)
51.3% (113)
Away
49.9% (585)
48.8% (125)
By Period
Nelson
Oshie
P1
55.4%
53.8%
P2
47.2%
47.5%
P3
52.6%
51.2%
OT
51.6%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.1%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2020 | 3 | 17:52 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 04:49 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |