Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Oshie on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 8 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Oshie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Oshie 46.4% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Oshie 82.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 80.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.2%
Result
T.J. Oshie favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Nelson
Oshie
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Nelson
Oshie
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Oshie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Oshie
0
8
Nelson
Oshie
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
0
Nelson
Oshie
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Oshie
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Oshie
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
45.2% (764)
+2.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
47.7% (1,221)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
40.2% (164)
+3.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Oshie shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Oshie is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,672).
Home / Away
Nelson
Oshie
Home
50.0% (5,845)
48.7% (1,103)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
43.7% (1,047)
By Period
Nelson
Oshie
P1
48.7%
47.3%
P2
48.5%
45.2%
P3
47.7%
46.7%
OT
45.6%
40.8%
Final 5 min
47.8%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 04:32 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 2 | 03:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 17:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Feb 10, 2020 | 3 | 17:52 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 14:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 2 | 04:49 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 06:05 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 13:46 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 04:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 17:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2016 | 3 | 09:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2014 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |