Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Oshie on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Oshie shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Oshie 48.5% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Oshie 77.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 68.7%
Neutral zone
Oshie 53.6%
Result
T.J. Oshie favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Nelson
Oshie
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Oshie
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Oshie
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Oshie
0
3
Nelson
Oshie
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Oshie
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Oshie
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Oshie
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
43.3% (127)
+5.2%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
51.7% (151)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
50.0% (12)
+7.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Oshie shoots right. Nelson is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Nelson shoots left. Oshie is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (164).
Home / Away
Nelson
Oshie
Home
55.0% (362)
42.1% (164)
Away
43.5% (345)
55.6% (126)
By Period
Nelson
Oshie
P1
49.3%
44.7%
P2
53.6%
47.8%
P3
46.0%
52.1%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.7%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Oshie
32.0%▼
43.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 04:32 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 2 | 03:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 3 | 17:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | T.J. Oshie |