Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 13-7 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 84.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 70.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 75.2%
75.2%
24.8%
Nelson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
13
(20 meetings)
7
13
Nelson
Hertl
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Nelson
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Hertl
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Nelson
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
58.1% (823)
-7.4%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
56.2% (265)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
62.9% (35)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hertl
Home
52.3% (621)
59.7% (561)
Away
48.9% (618)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Nelson
Hertl
P1
48.4%
51.6%
P2
53.5%
63.8%
P3
50.3%
58.6%
OT
41.2%
28.6%
Final 5 min
50.8%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 01:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 11:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |