Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Hertl 56.8% (-12.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 52.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Nelson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Nelson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
57.0% (718)
-10.9%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
64.9% (188)
-30.4%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
44.2% (77)
-13.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hertl
Home
48.7% (419)
59.2% (463)
Away
41.3% (368)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Nelson
Hertl
P1
44.6%
56.3%
P2
47.3%
55.4%
P3
43.0%
60.5%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 12:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |