Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Hertl 54.5% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 67.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Nelson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Hertl
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Nelson
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
54.1% (1,117)
-7.2%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
59.8% (296)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
34.4% (32)
-9.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hertl
Home
48.9% (521)
54.3% (709)
Away
45.5% (516)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Nelson
Hertl
P1
45.9%
51.6%
P2
48.0%
53.6%
P3
48.0%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
45.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 13:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 02:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 01:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 19:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 15:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |