Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Hertl 54.2% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 28-18 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 82.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 73.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Nelson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
28
(46 meetings)
18
28
Nelson
Hertl
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
12
Nelson
Hertl
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
9
10
Nelson
Hertl
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Nelson
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
53.8% (8,268)
-5.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
59.3% (1,975)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
46.3% (806)
-2.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hertl
Home
50.0% (5,845)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Nelson
Hertl
P1
48.7%
53.6%
P2
48.5%
54.1%
P3
47.7%
55.3%
OT
45.6%
46.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 01:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 11:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 16:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |