Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Hertl 55.4% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 67.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Nelson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Hertl
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
54.1% (717)
-2.8%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
61.9% (210)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
58.1% (31)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hertl
Home
52.5% (590)
58.1% (492)
Away
51.7% (619)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Nelson
Hertl
P1
50.5%
57.1%
P2
54.4%
54.0%
P3
51.4%
56.6%
OT
47.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 14:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 16:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |